German Gorráiz: THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE OF NATO
The urgent goal NATO Summit scheduled to be held in Cracovia is to implement the Plan of Action preparation (RAP English) in response to the Russian attitude in the Ukrainian crisis, It will result in the Pull down the “units for rapid intervention” in Poland, the Baltic States, Romania and Bulgaria, with the clear aim to “enable more rapid intervention if necessary” as stated by the Secretary General of the Organization, Anders Rasmussen German newspaper “Süddeustsche Zeitung” and the assumption by the members of the new doctrine ‘Smart Defense “(Defence Intelligence), new operating concept will involve the partial transfer of sovereignty of member countries to coordinate the defense NATO and the increase of expenditure items of the European countries that would be a meager 2% of GDP, leaving the bulk of funding in US hands. (75% of nearly $ Billion of the total budget).
So, US President Barack Obama after his meeting with the president-elect in Ukraine, Pyotr Poroshenko as part of his tour of Europe to assist in Brussels to the G7 summit (Russia was excluded as part of the position taken by Western policy in the Ukrainian conflict), he insisted on the policy of his government to strengthen its military presence in Europe while announcing that he would ask the US Congress to approve a budget of about one billion dollars for this purpose and urged members of the Organization North Atlantic Treaty to increase resources for the military in addition to reporting development projects to collaborate in this area with countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova and to send to Poland 12 F-16 and 200 soldiers reinforcement after Ukrainian crisis , bringing the total contingent of troops in Europe amount to some 70,000 members could be increased to 80,000, which would mean in practice violated the NATO-Russia Founding Act 1997 which dismissed NATO “parking permanent and substantial contingent additional combat troops in Eastern Europe “as well as a return to the doctrine of containment or Truman Doctrine, whose foundations were exposed by George F. Kennan in his essay” The Sources of Soviet Conduct ” published in the journal Foreign Affairs in 1947 and whose main ideas are summarized in the quote “Soviet power is impervious to the logic of reason but highly sensitive to logic of force.”
As explained Brzezinski in National Interest in 2000, “the Europeans are most immediately at risk if a chauvinistic imperialism again encourage Russian foreign policy”, which outlined a plan that would pass through expansion NATO to limits unknown in the 90s and implementing the new European system of missile defense, (European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). This system really is a comprehensive anti-missile shield in missiles interceptors deployed in mobile platforms can be folded white in a common space (based on information received from all radar and reconnaissance systems opto-electronic) in order Machiavellian after a US first surprise attack that would destroy the Russian nuclear potential its own territory, then neutralize the Russian replica through missiles stationed in Poland.
Initially, Russia and NATO agreed to cooperate in the creation of the anti-missile shield for Europe in November 2010 at the bilateral summit in Lisbon to Moscow as NATO was vital that offer real guarantees that the system does not point to Russia and he has a legally binding about the document, but the Obama administration following the mimetic inertia of the Bush Administration about Russia, has refused so far to provide such guarantees in writing and given the current context of Cold War US-Russian, is US finally decides expected to complete the fourth phase of the deployment of the missile shield in Europe (Euro DAM), which would have the reply from the Russian side in Kaliningrad installation of new inter-continental ballistic missile 100 t, (“the murderer missile of Shield US “in the words of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin) and the revival of the arms race between the two great powers, not being ruled out a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis (Cuba, 1962).
This implementation of the fourth phase of the Shield (reliving the Partnership project between the US and Europe to provide the UK Polaris missiles July 1962), could be seen by France as a loss of sovereignty and result in an outflow France provisional military structures of NATO, (emulating the dismantling of thirty US bases on French soil by De Gaulle (1966), taking back to the “force de frappe” as the backbone of their future and not being defensive doctrine US-disposable installation in the Navarre Pyrenees in a radar bases (Gorramendi) to hear the whisperings of the Elysee, which will witness the staging of the completion of the internal schism within NATO, because since De Gaulle, the Resistance American leadership has been a factor in the foreign policy of all French presidents, so we could see the end of the honeymoon in France with Obama because of disagreements with the US administration on specific issues, but the fundamental difference is in the However, (support of De Gaulle to the United States in the Cuban Missile Crisis of Cuba (1962).
Assist for the division and settlement of the current NATO from which emerge a new one that would comprise the US, Canada, Britain, Baltic countries, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Romania, Spain, Italy military structure, Portugal, Malta, Cyprus, Greece and Turkey with the clear goal of becoming containing block of the expansionist ideals of Putin and secondly, the strengthening of the Berlin-Paris axis, led by France and Germany and it will gravitate in its orbit influence to countries in its area of influence primal (Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg and Austria), resulting from the restatement of the French and German national sovereignty as a defensive strategy against the drift of former “American partner” (reliving the Elysee Treaty between De Gaulle and Adenauer (1,963). This will entail a political rapprochement with Russia (recalling De Gaulle’s trip to Moscow, 1966) and would result in the ratification of the Good Neighbor Policy with Putin’s Russia by signing preferential agreements to ensure the supply of gas and oil Russian and increase trade, because European energy depends of Russia (21% of oil imports and 40% of gas from Russia), having the other European countries suffer the Russian energy blackmail to crack Community unity, certain that Germany and France will not hesitate to sacrifice these countries in order to ensure its energy supply. Thus, after the annexation of Crimea to Russia via referendum, we will see a “lightning intervention” of the Russian Army in Ukraine will cause the division of Germany into two almost symmetrical and separated by the meridian 32 This halves, leaving the South and East country (including Crimea) under the Russian orbit while the Central and Western Ukraine today sail in the wake of the EU, which will be endorsed division into a new Geneva Agreement and mean “de facto” the return of the plaintiff endemism of War Russia-US cold.
By GERMÁN GORRAIZ LÓPEZ- Analyst